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Article Released Sun-13th-March-2011 18:29 GMT
Contact: Ruth Institution: Nature Publishing Group
 Drought worsens dilemma for African maize

Summaries of newsworthy papers: Drought worsens dilemma for African maize

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For papers that will be published online on 13 March 2011

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Drought worsens dilemma for African maize

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[1] Drought worsens dilemma for African maize
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1043

The impact of heat and water stress on food production are analysed in a paper published in Nature Climate Change this week. Looking specifically at African maize and its ability to cope with warming, the work suggests that 1 °C of warming would result in yield losses for 65% of the current maize-growing region in Africa. Under drought conditions, 100% of the currently cultivated area would experience yield losses, with 75% of this area suffering losses of at least 20%.

The impact of climate change on food production remains uncertain, particularly in the tropics. David Lobell and colleagues used historical data from over 20,000 African maize trials conducted between 1999 and 2007, together with daily weather records, to investigate the impact of heat stress and drought on yield. They found that for each ‘degree day’ the crop spends above 30 °C — a measure that accounts for the amount and duration of heat experienced by the plant — the yield decreases by 1% if the plants are rainfed. This result tallies with observations for temperate maize varieties in the United States.

Importantly, however, they also show that under drought conditions, yields decrease by 1.7% for each degree day spent over 30 °C, suggesting that water availability is critical to survival.

Author contact:
David Lobell (Stanford University, CA, USA)
Tel: +1 650 721 6207; E-mail: dlobell@stanford.edu

Maximilian Auffhammer (University of California at Berkeley, CA, USA) N&V author
Tel: +1 510 643 5472; E-mail: auffhammer@berkeley.edu


Items from Nature Climate Change to be published online at the same time and with the same embargo:

Living through the storm
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1047


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